April 9, 2020

Total Lockdown useless: Infections in the future is not the same as avoiding them

Extreme mitigation efforts which end (even gradually) reduce the number of deaths only by 1% or so; as the mitigation efforts let up, we still see a full-scale epidemic, since almost none of the population has developed immunity to the virus.

In fact, because of the role of weather in the model presented, two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations, since it pushes the peak of the epidemic to the winter instead of the summer

Read the analysis