March 19, 2020

Covid-19, the pandemic in Italy will end on April 6: data and algorithms say it

The Covid-19 pandemic in Italy is dirty one April by the 15th. This is said by research by the Department of Physics of Complex Systems E’tv’s Lor’nd University of Budapest. The study of the study on 19 March icola there is an amount of data already already in Italy to predict the final outcome of the process. The data from the province of Hubei have a turisaity with Italians those. The method is based on the analysis of logistics that well not the a macroscopic level. In Italy, the number of victims was 6000 and April 15 2020.

“At the beginning of the epidemic,” the study reads,  Italian data showed the same exponential growth trend observed in Hubei Province, China. The question we have to ask ourselves is this: can the measures taken in Italy stop the exponential growth of infections? Can we reach the threshold of the final saturation shown in China? The daily growth rate of deaths fluctuated in China at around  25-30%  which we could define as the “natural” growth rate in the absence of intervention.  10% The analysis of the Italian data starts from 25 February with a daily growth rate of 20-30%. The blockade of  Lombardy  begins on March 9 with about 463 deaths: the linear trend can be observed from this date. There is therefore also a similar effect in our country with a daily rate of growth that seems to decrease by  4% per 1000 new deaths:the daily growth rate will therefore be reduced from about 24% to zero after 6000 deaths. In Hubei province, the 12% growth rate fell to zero after about 3,000 deaths. This therefore seems to be a universal consequence of the blockade. Using these parameters is then calculated when the spread of the virus in Italy could end. In China the process lasted  39.4 days,  while in Italy, starting from the date of 9 March,  27.49 days will have to be calculated, arriving around  6 April.».

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